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Project Syndicate:

The Mismeasurement of Europe's Productivity

The Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman uses the wrong metric - purchasing power parity - to make the case that Europe is not lagging far behind the US in terms of productivity. The right metric shows that the gap is g...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Spatial productivity disparities in Great Britain

We study productivity disparities across metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas in Great Britain. Spatial disparities in productivity are large and persistent. Using a development accounting framework, we show that diff...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Changing jobs: worker mobility and wages in the UK labour market

We study the role of job-to-job transitions in shaping wage dynamics in the United Kingdom. We show that job moves have continued to generate substantial wage gains for movers even during a period of real wage stagnation...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Counting the costs: a quantitative assessment of Brexit’s effect on UK regional economies

This paper examines the implications of the EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) using a dynamic spatial general equilibrium model. Unlike previous studies that primarily projected potential impacts of Brexit base...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The fragility of the global trading system

We use a parsimonious gravity framework to simulate and compare five potential shocks to the global shipping system: closures of the Panama Canal, the Suez Canal, and the Strait of Malacca, and openings of the Northwest ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Returns to green tasks in Europe: evidence from online job vacancies

There is growing evidence that green jobs have higher skill requirements, but whether they offer sufficient wage incentives to encourage workers to acquire those skills remains unclear. We study the green wage premium an...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Skills, not scale: GenAI and technology adoption

Do the determinants of technology adoption depend on technological architecture? Using administrative data on Turkish firms from 2021 to 2024, we compare the adoption of traditional and generative artificial intelligence...Read more...

Journal article

IMF Economic Review:

Accommodating Emerging Giants in the Global Economy

How have aggregate income and welfare in the United States been affected by globalization and rapid productivity growth in emerging economies? We use the class of constant elasticity trade models to provide quantitative ...Read more...

Blog

LSE Management:

Is the world becoming more autocratic?

The last 50 years has seen a shift in the composition of autocratic states across the globe. However, while there is not yet exactly an economic bloc of autocratic states, along the lines of the Soviet spheres of influen...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Mind the break-up: when policy disrupts firms' supply chains

This paper examines how policy-induced supply-chain shocks affect firms’ performances, using the UK-EU Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA) as a source of exogenous variation. Using UK microdata on firm-level goods and ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Should we stay or should we go? Firms’ decision on services mode of supply

Services account for one-third of global trade, yet little is known about the impact of trade restrictions on services trade. To make progress in this area, it is crucial to understand through which modes services are tr...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Evading the ban: smuggling, pollution, and the welfare effects of China’s waste import restrictions

While import restrictions are increasingly deployed to achieve non-trade objectives such as environmental protection, they often create distortions and leakage through illicit trade. We examine this trade-off in the cont...Read more...

Blog

LSE British Politics:

A more productive economy is being delivered under this Labour government

The Labour government set raising economic growth as its central target while in power. The new figures published by the Office for National Statistics suggest that the economy is doing a lot better than expected. John V...Read more...

Chapter

Advancing gender equality in parenting: the remaining challenge

in The Routledge International Handbook of Time Use Themes and Applications

The roles of men and women in the labour market have been converging in recent decades, but studies have shown that women are devoting more time to childcare, widening the gender gap in this area. Using data from the UK ...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

The civil war reduced slave owners' economic power but increased their political influence

Did Southern elites’ economic losses from abolition translate into diminished political influence? Using novel census-linked data on state lawmakers across four slave owning and two Northern states (1850–1880), we docume...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Gender equality and innovation: evidence from UK companies

We investigate the effect of intra-firm gender disparities on innovation using a unique longitudinal dataset of UK companies from 1996 to 2019. Utilising within-industry and within-firm variation, as well as an instrumen...Read more...

CEP report

Catalysing climate resilience

The UK is experiencing increasing impacts from climate change, including more frequent and severe floods, heatwaves and storms. It needs to prepare more for these impacts. It also needs to honour its pledge to support cl...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Measuring systematic gaps in teacher judgement: A new approach

We propose a new approach to test for systematic biases in teacher evaluations. We exploit a setting where teachers were required to assign students both grades and rankings within each grade. Comparing students immediat...Read more...

Blog

CEPR:

How UK firms are responding to the war in Iran: Early evidence from the Decision Maker Panel

The conflict in the Middle East has pushed energy prices sharply higher, but the implications for UK inflation will depend on the scale and duration of the shock as well as its propagation through firms' costs, prices, m...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

Sentencing severity, victim behaviour, and the prevention of domestic violence

Can harsher criminal sanctions reduce violence inside intimate relationships? We study Brazil’s 2015 Femicide Law, which reclassified femicide as a heinous crime and raised expected penalties for gender-based killings. U...Read more...

Blog

Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta:

How Much Are Firms Spending on AI (and What Will Happen to Headcounts)?

Nicholas Bloom and his co-authors investigate AI adoption in firms to understand how much companies are spending on AI and what the impact will be on the composition of their workforces....Read more...

Blog

What works centre for local economic grwoth:

Estimating Graduate Supply: A Pathway Approach to Local Skills Data

In this guest blog, Aadya Bahl talks about the analysis done for the CEP report Hive of talent: what would it take to raise skills and productivity in Greater Manchester? published last week. For more information on avai...Read more...

CEP discussion paper

From pilot to policy: experimental evidence from Scaling online tutoring

Can effective tutoring programs survive the transition from pilot to scale, and from researcher to government implementers? We address this question using a randomized controlled trial of an online mathematics tutoring p...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of International Economics:

The US-China trade war creates jobs (elsewhere)

We examine the indirect effects of the 2018-2019 US-China trade war on Brazil’s labor market. We construct a measure of regional exposure to the trade conflict using industry-specific tariff changes and the sectoral empl...Read more...

Journal article

Journal of Health Economics:

The value of a park in crises: Quantifying the health and wellbeing benefits of green spaces using exogenous variations in use values

Most people consider parks important for their quality of life, yet systematic causal evidence is missing. We exploit exogenous variations in their use values to estimate causal effects. Using a representative household ...Read more...